Economist's Note
Brian LeBlanc, Head of Economic Analysis, PNC Economics Research
Hallazgos principales
- Consumer spending growth slowed modestly in July after accelerating in the first half of 2026. Much of the slowdown reflects the timing of Prime Day, which boosted June spending at the expense of July, making the slowdown appear somewhat larger than it actually was.
- That said, the boost from larger tax refunds that lifted spending in the spring is now largely exhausted, and households in July appeared more sensitive to rising gasoline prices than they were earlier in 2026. This creates a less supportive backdrop for spending in the second half of the year.
- Still, it's difficult to envision a scenario where spending truly rolls over while consumer balance sheets remain as healthy as they are today. Median checking and savings balances remain well above pre-pandemic levels, even after adjusting for inflation. We see increasing evidence of upper-income and older households cashing in on wealth gains to support spending.
- The "K-shaped" pattern of spending has largely disappeared in 2026. Larger tax refunds helped lower-income households absorb the shock from higher gasoline prices, but the improving labor market has been a more important and durable source of support. Continued progress will depend on the labor market remaining healthy.
- Under the hood, spending on experiences such as concerts, travel, and restaurants improved somewhat in July, even as broader discretionary spending slowed.
- Special Focus: We examine the growing burden of student loan payments, which account for an average of 8% of after-tax income among borrowers, with Gen Z households facing a disproportionate share of the burden.
Consultar las ediciones anteriores de Evaluación de la salud financiera del consumidor
