Economist's Note
Brian LeBlanc, Head of Economic Analysis, PNC Economics Research
Hallazgos principales
- Total card spend in August cooled to its slowest pace in 2026 after accelerating through the first half of the year. However, much of the slowdown was concentrated in the last week of the month and appears to be largely a Labor Day calendar impact that should reverse in September.
- Spending received a boost in the first half of the year from the larger tax refunds under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and that impulse is now largely behind us. However, card spend still appears very healthy, with YoY growth in the 4% to 5% range, but down slightly from ~6% earlier in the year.
- The K-shaped spending gap continued to narrow in August, as lower-income spending growth all but closed the gap with upper-income households. This has been the most encouraging development of 2026, though it remains an open question on how durable this trend will be in the months ahead.
- Household balance sheets are holding up in 2026. Average checking and savings balances are up nearly 4% year-over-year, although much of that growth is skewed towards upper-income households. The share of households living "paycheck-to-paycheck" is roughly steady near 58%.
- Employment trends, as measured by direct deposit payments, have moderated from the much-improved pace at the start of the year. Median wage growth, meanwhile, has run around 3% in recent months, roughly in line with official measures but barely ahead of inflation.
- Travel spending has improved in recent months, and we see evidence of consumers "trading up," with stronger growth for non-budget hotels and airlines than for their budget counterparts. Additionally, households are turning more toward experiences like cruises and packaged travel, both of which sit well above pre-pandemic levels.
Consultar las ediciones anteriores de Evaluación de la salud financiera del consumidor
