Nota del economista
Brian LeBlanc, economista sénior de Investigación económica de PNC
Hallazgos principales
- U.S. consumer spending accelerated again in May: Total card spending rose 5.6% YoY in May, another four-year high. This is despite a nearly 40% YoY increase in spending on gas.
- It’s not just higher tax returns supporting spending: Larger refunds are still helping, but firmer job growth and stronger direct deposit trends are providing more durable support.
- Households are tapping wealth gains: Net inflows from brokerage accounts are increasing as some households cash in prior gains to sustain spending.
- Savings buffers are holding steady: PNC’s Cash Savings Buffer Index, which tracks how long households can sustain spending from existing balances, has improved modestly over the past three months despite higher gas prices
- The income spending gap keeps narrowing: The gap between lower- and higher-income household spending is the closest it’s been in three years, and it isn’t being propped up by credit.
Household finances have remained surprisingly resilient to the rapid increase in gas prices that began in March. Not only has spending held up, it continues to accelerate. Total card spending rose 5.6% year over year in May, a four-year high. Even excluding the roughly 40% increase in gas spending, credit card spending was up 4.9%, also near a four-year high.
Households have been able to maintain this pace without meaningfully drawing down checking and savings balances or relying more on credit cards. PNC’s Cash Savings Buffer Index, which measures how long households can keep up spending from existing balances, has improved three months into the conflict with Iran. Checking and savings balances have remained stable across income groups, even after adjusting for inflation, while credit card minimum payment rates have held steady, and even improved, for lower-income households.
Three factors help explain this resilience: tax refunds, which are still contributing but being spent down faster than last year; a firming labor market, with direct deposit recipients rising and unemployment payment recipients falling year-over-year for the first time since 2022; and household wealth gains, with net inflows from brokerage accounts increasing as some households cash in prior gains.
One of the more surprising developments of 2026 has been lower-income consumers. The spending gap between lower- and higher-income households is now the narrowest in three years, reversing a steady widening that continued through late 2025. In addition to larger tax refunds, lower-income households are benefiting from better labor market conditions and stronger job growth.
Consumer resilience in the face of higher gas prices has been encouraging. More importantly, the drivers of that resilience are shifting toward more durable sources, particularly stronger job growth and income trends. The key question heading into the second half of the year is whether those fundamentals can continue to hold.
Consultar las ediciones anteriores de Evaluación de la salud financiera del consumidor
