- Gas prices have surged since the U.S. conflict with Iran began, but broader consumer spending has remained resilient. Average gasoline spending per household rose roughly 24% year-over-year in the final week of March, yet there is little evidence of a broader spending slowdown so far.
- Despite higher gas outlays, households have not materially pulled back elsewhere. Total consumer spending accelerated in March, rising 4.6% year-over-year. That is near the fastest pace of spending growth since 2022.
- For now, the fiscal boost from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act appears to be more than offsetting the blow from higher gas prices. Tax refunds are up more than 10% per household relative to last year and lower withholding taxes are boosting take home pay. These income gains have prevented households from needing to draw down savings to sustain spending.
- That support is likely to ease if gas prices remain elevated. Household balance sheets remain solid but less robust than during the 2022 gas price spike when excess savings and income growth were stronger. This is particularly true for lower‑income households, whose savings buffers have declined more sharply.
- Unemployment payments in PNC data continue to edge higher, though the pace of increase is slowing. The average duration of unemployment is unchanged over the past year.
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See Past Issues of the Consumer Health Check
