The MSCI All Country World Index delivered gains in the fourth quarter, led higher by value equities in the Financials and Health Care sectors. Regionally, emerging markets and Europe outperformed; while on a country level, artificial intelligence (AI) leaders China and the United States cooled following strong returns in the third quarter. In 2026, we expect productivity gains, combined with supportive fiscal and monetary policy, to support favorable returns for a fourth consecutive year. 

¿Qué tipos de activos lideraron el cuarto trimestre?

Developed International Equity (5.2%)

Our thesis: Growth expectations have improved and over the long term, developed international exposure offers diversification benefits in portfolios.

What worked in the quarter: Outperformance from the Financials sector was supported by earnings that beat consensus estimates. Equities in Canada led, in part from the metals & mining industry as gold prices climbed more than 12% in the quarter.

Looking ahead: Infrastructure and defense spending plans have proven to be a strong tailwind for equities in Europe. The near-term outlook for economic and earnings growth, aided by fiscal stimulus, has been improving, but structural headwinds and a highly competitive global landscape are moderating factors.

Emerging Market Equity (4.3%)

Our thesis: Emerging markets (EM) contribute more than half of global GDP, in contrast to their 10% allocation within the MSCI All Country World Index. Long-term secular and economic growth themes support our positive view of the asset class.

What worked in the quarter: Continued AI developments helped boost mega-capitalization (cap) technology companies, particularly market leaders in South Korea and Taiwan.

Looking ahead: Given the strong earnings outlook, technology innovation in China and fading concerns from global trade policy, we continue to have a positive outlook for EM.

U.S. Large-cap Equity (2.7%)

Our thesis: U.S. large-cap equities are the long-term growth and innovation engine of public equities given their sustainable, high-quality fundamental characteristics and robust technology exposure.

What worked in the quarter: During the fourth quarter, strong earnings growth contributed to improved market breadth (beyond the Technology sector) and enabled all sectors to end the year with positive returns.

Looking ahead: The scale advantage and higher-quality nature of large-cap companies should create a superior ability to navigate economic uncertainty while investing in technology leadership.

¿Qué tipos de activos quedaron rezagados en el cuarto trimestre?

Core Fixed Income (1.1%)

Nuestra tesis: la renta fija básica suele ser el principal contrapeso en las carteras multiactivos, dado su amplio nivel de diversificación entre bonos del Tesoro de EE. UU., bonos corporativos y valores titulizados. 

What happened in the quarter: Interest rates for most maturities across the asset class declined during the quarter and, coupled with credit spread compression, helped drive the fourth consecutive quarter of positive returns.

Looking ahead: Over the long term, core fixed income provides stability and income in portfolios to help dampen volatility. In the near term, we expect current yield levels to offer reasonable compensation to investors given our outlook for only modest inflation.

U.S. High Yield (1.3%)

Nuestra hipótesis: durante el transcurso de un ciclo económico completo, se espera que los bonos de alto rendimiento superen el rendimiento de la renta fija básica. Historically, the asset class has a stronger correlation with equity markets than with the direction of interest rates, so it carries considerable risk relative to core fixed income.

What happened in the quarter: Another strong quarter of issuance and improving fundamentals contributed to credit spreads remaining tight. Declining interest rates and positive returns for risk assets contributed to the quarter’s positive return. 

Looking ahead: Valuations are rich as high yield credit spreads sit near cycle lows. Coupon-clipping amid a stable economic market backdrop is our base case expectation.

U.S. Mid-cap Equity (1.6%)

Our thesis: Sticky inflation and elevated interest rates challenged U.S. mid-cap equities in 2025, but we believe that they should benefit from U.S.-centric revenue exposure in 2026.

What happened in the quarter: Mid-cap equities gained momentum in the fourth quarter, led by equities in the Technology and Health Care sectors based on strong earnings results. Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and an improving economic outlook were additional tailwinds.

Looking ahead: Mid-cap valuations are relatively attractive but will be dependent on long-term interest rates and fiscal trade policy clarity for earnings growth and margin expansion.

Index Performance (%)

 

4Q 2025

Octubre

Noviembre

Diciembre

Acciones estadounidenses

 

 

 

 

Russell 3000®

2.4

2.1

0.3

0.0

S&P 500®

2.7

2.3

0.2

0.1

Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value

5.2

0.5

2.8

1.8

S&P 500 Equal Weight®

1.4

-0.9

1.9

0.4

S&P 500 Value®

3.2

1.1

1.7

0.4

S&P 500 Growth®

2.2

3.3

-0.9

-0.2

S&P MidCap 400®

1.6

-0.5

2.0

0.1

S&P MidCap 400 Value®

2.1

-1.3

3.1

0.3

S&P MidCap 400 Growth®

1.3

0.3

1.2

-0.2

Russell 2000®

2.2

1.8

1.0

-0.6

Russell 2000 Value®

3.3

0.3

2.8

0.2

Russell 2000 Growth®

1.2

3.2

-0.7

-1.3

MSCI USA IMI/Real Estate

-2.7

-2.6

2.4

-2.4

Acciones internacionales

 

 

 

 

MSCI ACWI Ex USA IMI

4.8

1.8

0.1

2.9

MSCI World ex-USA

5.2

1.1

1.0

3.0

MSCI World ex USA Quality

4.1

1.3

0.7

2.0

MSCI World Ex USA Value

8.2

0.6

3.1

4.3

MSCI World Ex USA Growth

2.2

1.5

-1.0

1.7

MSCI World ex USA Small Cap

3.5

-0.7

1.7

2.4

MSCI EM IMI

4.3

3.9

-2.3

2.7

De renta fija

 

 

 

 

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate

1.1

0.6

0.6

-0.1

Bloomberg Municipal

1.6

1.2

0.2

0.1

Alto rendimiento Bloomberg U.S. Corporate

1.3

0.2

0.6

0.6

Bloomberg EM USD Aggregate

2.4

1.7

0.2

0.4

A partir del 12/31/2025. Fuente: Morningstar Inc.