After a year marked by uncertainty, the expectation is for the business environment to become steadier in 2026. As clarity starts to form around where conditions are heading, businesses are ready to start making moves.

“As we enter the new year, the outlook for businesses appears positive with most projections pointing to relatively stable economic conditions,” head of Commercial Banking Mike Willetts said. “In 2025, disruptions such as tariffs, the government shutdown and other uncertainties, created significant noise in the market, leading to some pent-up demand. Businesses postponed key decisions until they had more clarity, which should be unlocked in 2026.”

Uncertainty Becomes Success

In PNC’s recent Inside the Minds of CFOs survey, which polled 300 U.S.-based chief financial officers (CFOs), 70% of respondents say the uncertainty in the economic outlook in 2025 positively affected their companies.

“The fact that CFOs said the uncertainty helped their businesses was one of the most surprising findings in the study,” head of Corporate Banking Terry Begley said. “I thought that was an incredibly high number, until I heard that the reason was it woke them up a little bit and led to taking defensive moves to combat it.”

The increase in agility and innovation driven by the reactions to market conditions will likely continue to position companies well for future changes in the environment. Process improvements, technological advances and streamlined operations can all serve companies well regardless of the environment.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

AI is also likely to play a big role throughout the coming year. For a long time, there was debate over whether AI was a buzzword or if it would make a material difference in how businesses operate. While the applications are still new and many companies are still uncovering the most effective ways to use AI, there are incremental gains to be made in the meantime.

“AI is going to take a while to revolutionize companies and entire industries, but there should be productivity gains that can be made for businesses of all kinds,” Willetts said. “The real test will be when and how companies can leverage AI to show meaningful payoff in revenue growth for their organizations.” 

Mergers & Acquisitions

As the environment becomes more friendly for mergers and acquisitions, there is likely to be an uptick in activity starting early in 2026 among companies looking to grow, acquire new capabilities or expand into new markets, assuming economic conditions remain favorable. Shifts in the environment, of course, could soften expectations.

Yellow Flags

There are a few additional yellow flags that suggest business leaders should remain vigilant in the year ahead. The full impact of tariffs may not have been realized yet, the upcoming mid-term election could introduce new uncertainties, a change in the Federal Reserve chair is on the horizon and questions remain about the future direction of interest rates. All of these factors could shift the business environment in unexpected ways.

“The credit environment feels like it could become more of an X-factor in the coming year,” Begley said. “We haven't had a negative credit cycle in a long time, and we’ll likely get a good idea of whether that could be on the horizon from economic indicators as those continue to be released.” 

Let's build your brilliant

If you are interested in developing financial strategies to navigate the challenging economic climate, your PNC Relationship Manager can help. Contact us or learn more here.