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National Economic Outlook

2021 PNC Corporate Responsibility Report

Latest National Economic Outlook Report

PNC's National Economic Outlook provides analysis and forecasts of key U.S. economic variables.

National Economic Outlook Report

Economic Reports

Headline and Core Prices Both Up 0.2% in April; Year-Ago Inflation Eases to Slowest Pace in Four Years; No Evidence Yet of Tariff-Induced Price Hikes - 05/13/2025
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fell By 13K to 228K in Week Ending May 3 and Continuing Claims Fell by 29K to 1.879 Million in the Week Ending April 26. - 05/08/2025
Nonfarm Business Sector Labor Productivity Slides In Q1; Unit Labor Costs Surge - 05/08/2025
FOMC Holds Fed Funds Rate Unchanged Again As Expected; Risks of Higher Unemployment and Higher Inflation Have Risen - 05/07/2025
Goods Deficit Surged to a Record While Travel Made to the US Fell Sharply - 05/06/2025
ISM Services Index Posted a Modest Gain to 51.6 in April 2025 - 05/05/2025
Another Solid Jobs Report in April, But Tariffs a Likely Drag Later This Year - 05/02/2025
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rose By 18K to 241K in Week Ending April 26 and Continuing Claims Surged by 83K to 1.916 Million in the Week Ending April 19, the Highest in Three Years. - 05/01/2025
ISM Manufacturing Survey Fell to 48.7 in April 2025 - 05/01/2025
Nominal Construction Spending Declined in March; Tariffs Remain a Major Drag - 05/01/2025
Solid Job and Spending Gains in March as Consumer Side of the Economy Continued to Hold Up in Early Spring; Inflation Slowed - 04/30/2025
GDP Contracted in Q1 as Imports Surged Ahead of Tariffs; Underlying Demand Was Solid - 04/30/2025

Cautious Fed Held While Uncertainty Remains High; BOE and PBOC Cut - 05/13/2025
Trade War Weighed on Sentiments; Uncertainty Remains Elevated - 04/22/2025
Trade War Impacts Accumulate Globally, Raising Fears of Bigger Economic Slowdown - 04/07/2025
Fed, BOJ, BOE Stayed on Hold While Uncertainty to Growth and Inflation Outlooks Remain - 03/21/2025
ECB Cut Last Week, Fed to Hold Upon Sticky Inflation, BOC To Cut This Week - 03/11/2025
US Homebuilding and Consumer Confidence Fell in Early 2025 - 02/27/2025
RBA Made the First Rate Cut Since Late 2020; Eurozone and UK Economies Expanded in Q4 - 02/19/2025

PNC's National Economic Outlook provides analysis and forecasts of key U.S. economic variables, such as real GDP, interest rates, inflation, income, employment, industrial production and house prices.

Read the Current Report – December

Previous Reports – September | July | June

PNC's Market Expectation Survey lists the current consensus forecast for key economic data releases for the upcoming week, as well as PNC's own forecast for each item. A comprehensive calendar listing recent data for key economic indicators is provided on the second page.

View latest Market Expectations Survey Report

Exchange Rate Forecasts - Second Quarter 2023

Currency Review - May 2025

China - Second Quarter 2023

Metals Industry Report - First Quarter 2025 

Published semi-annually, PNC's survey of small and mid-size business owners' expectations for their own businesses' performance, and their outlook for the national and regional economies are described in detail (available in March and September).

Explore Latest Findings

United States

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank – FRED

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Bureau of the Census

Bureau of Labor Statistics

International

The World Factbook

U.S. State Department

International Trade Data – U.S. Census Bureau

Trade and Data Analysis – International Trade Administration

Foreign Governments Resources, University of Michigan

International Monetary Fund

World Bank Group

Regional

Federal Reserve Districts

Federal Reserve Board – Beige Book

State Data Center Sites

Additional Resources

American Economic Association

National Association for Business Economics

Meet Our Economists

Augustine Faucher

Senior Vice President & Chief Economist

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Jay Hawkins

Vice President & Senior Economist

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Stuart G. Hoffman

Senior Vice President & Senior Economic Advisor

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Kurt J. Rankin

Vice President & Senior Economist

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Ershang Liang

Economist

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Contact Us

Economists

Economics Department
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.
300 Fifth Avenue
The Tower at PNC Plaza
Pittsburgh, PA 15222-2401

economics@pnc.com

News & Insights

Running Your Business

Business Owners Optimistic Despite Potential Global Economic Challenges

PNC's Spring 2025 survey highlights confidence in business prospects and national economy, but reservations about global trade policy.

3 min read

Running Your Business

Fall 2024: Business Leaders Optimistic About Economy and Business Prospects

PNC survey reflects anticipated growth despite lingering concerns on inflation

3 min read

View More Insights