- February card spending rose 3.9% year-over-year (YoY), near a three year high, underscoring resilient consumer demand despite softer job and income growth. Lingering weather disruptions in the Northeast modestly restrained activity but appear to be fading heading into March.
- Gambling related spending has surged, rising roughly 16% YoY and outpacing most discretionary categories. What was once a small, niche segment has grown rapidly in recent years, as online betting, casinos, and lotteries capture a growing share of overall entertainment spending.
- Tax refunds are running about 10% larger than last year, driven by changes under OBBBA, and should support spending into spring. Households typically spend about half of refunds within 30 days, with funds gradually absorbed over several months – providing a sustained, though temporary, tailwind to consumption, especially for lower income households.
- Valentine’s-related spending was firm in February, with strong growth in categories such as cosmetics, jewelry, cigars, florists, and gift and novelty stores.
- Household income growth firmed somewhat in February, supporting consumer resilience as balances rebuild. Labor conditions are cooling but not deteriorating sharply, with unemployment increases modest and concentrated. If hiring stabilizes, spending should hold up; otherwise, growth likely moderates toward income trends.
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See Past Issues of the Consumer Health Check
