It’s less about market conditions and more about your finances, lifestyle, and goals.

  • Timing a home purchase depends more on your personal readiness than on general market conditions.
  • Interest rates and home prices often move inversely: as rates decrease, buyer competition increases, which pushes purchase prices higher (and vice versa).
  • Housing markets often shift with the seasons. Many American markets offer more selection for buyers in spring and summer but lower prices in winter.

Are you watching the market for the right time to buy a home?

Maybe you’re hoping prices or mortgage interest rates will drop. Or perhaps you’re looking for more inventory so you can have more homes to choose from. 

But when you look more closely at housing market dynamics, you typically find that there is no perfect time to buy. Peter McCarthy, PNC Bank’s Head of Home Lending, points out that timing often depends more on your personal circumstances than on market conditions.

“There are so many variables involved and factors to consider when buying a home. There is the matter of prevailing interest rates, of course. And there’s the question of what homes are available. But there are other nuances that determine whether this is the right time – and typically those depend on your specific situation.”

- Peter McCarthy, PNC Bank’s Head of Home Lending

 

In other words, there’s no economic indicator to signal that it’s time for everyone to buy. Instead, this decision should be based on your financial readiness and personal goals.

The best time to buy a home is when it makes sense for you and your household. 

Personal Finance Indicators that You’re Ready to Buy

If you’re thinking about buying a home, ask yourself the following questions:

“To me, those are the critical questions to ask when starting out,” McCarthy notes. “Many are surprised to learn that, upon taking a serious look, owning a home is actually well within reach.”

The first move, McCarthy advises, is to take stock of what you can afford. An online mortgage affordability calculator can analyze factors like your income, existing debts, and current interest rates to estimate how much house you can afford. 

“The great thing about an affordability calculator is that it allows you to experiment with different scenarios. The results can be surprising and, sometimes, they are a reality check. But even that is much preferable to not knowing or going in blind.”

- Peter McCarthy, PNC Bank’s Head of Home Lending

 

Even if you can’t fill in all the blanks, the simple exercise of using an affordability calculator provides a more realistic picture.

The more you know about your current situation in real terms, the better you’re positioned to make an informed decision.

Lifestyle Indicators that You’re Ready to Buy

Buying a home isn’t only about finances. There are also lifestyle factors to consider. 

  • Are you willing and able to maintain the property?
  • Do you plan to live in the same area long enough for the purchase to be worth the cost?
  • Do you want more control over your home environment than renting allows?

As McCarthy explains, “If you have outgrown an apartment—either by growing your family or just needing the extra room—then buying a home makes a good deal more sense.”

If you’re financially ready, and buying a home would suit your lifestyle, there’s no need to wait for certain market conditions that may or may not ever present themselves.

Why Timing the Market Typically Doesn’t Work

You may have heard stories about people who bought their homes when prices fell or when interest rates were at historic lows. In many cases, that was a matter of luck. Those buyers happened to be ready to buy during the Great Recession, when home values tumbled, or during the early days of COVID, when interest rates fell below 3%.[1]

Of course, hindsight is 20/20. It’s easy to forget that those were periods of intense economic uncertainty, and committing to such a large purchase felt risky during those times.

The fact is, it’s exceedingly rare to find a time when prices, interest rates, and inventory are all favorable for homebuyers. When interest rates decline, we typically see more buyers enter the market. This tends to drive home prices up and reduce available inventory. Similarly, when home prices dip, we may have more buyers enter the market, reversing the pricing trend and reducing inventory. 

The Cost of Waiting for Lower Interest Rates or Price Drops

Waiting for lower interest rates or reduced home prices may sound financially prudent, but it’s important to remember:

  1. Drops are often subtle. You may not see a steep decline in home prices or interest rates that fall by multiple points. McCarthy remarks. “Instead, it could prove to be a quarter point here, a quarter point there.”
  2. When rates or prices drop, buyers tend to rush in. The resulting surge in demand could drive prices up, canceling out any savings a lower interest rate might provide.
  3. Rates and prices could actually increase. This would make purchasing a home less affordable than it is today.  

It’s also worth noting that current interest rates are well within their historical averages.[1]

While we got used to extremely low interest rates from 2008 to 2022, today’s rates are more in line with long-term averages. McCarthy confirms. “It’s better to purchase a home in today’s market, then refinance when and if rates drop, not vice versa. Otherwise, you might be waiting a very long time for the decline you are looking for.”

If you hold out for the “right time,” you’ll miss out on the equity that you could build from buying now.

What About Seasonal Real Estate Market Cycles? 

Many local American housing markets follow annual cycles, in which sales ramp up in the spring and summer and decline through the fall and winter.[2]

Seasonal markets may be characterized by the following:

Spring and Summer Fall and Winter
Peak season: April - June Peak season: October – February
More homes available Fewer homes available
Higher buyer competition Lower buyer competition
Potential for higher sales prices Potential for lower sales prices
Sellers tend to hold more leverage Buyers tend to hold more leverage

In practice, you typically see more buyers and sellers enter the market between April and June (this varies by location).[3] There is data to support the idea that sellers earn more by listing in the spring because there is greater competition among buyers.[4]

Seasonal patterns may help guide your strategy, but your personal readiness should still come first.

Get a Professional in Your Corner

Buying a home is a complex process with lots of variables. Mortgage loan officers (MLOs) understand the ins and outs of financing a home purchase. As long-time industry veterans, McCarthy and his team have helped untold thousands become homeowners.

“The biggest mistake people make when buying a home? They call the mortgage lender last rather than first. This is especially true in today’s market, where loan pre-approval is almost required for sellers to take your offer seriously.”

A mortgage pre‑approval offers multiple benefits for homebuyers, including: 

  • Identifying loan programs and/or grants you may qualify for
  • Helping you understand your real homebuying budget
  • Showing sellers you’re a qualified, serious buyer
  • Making your eventual purchase offer stronger by assuring the seller that you’re likely to qualify for the funding needed to complete the purchase. 

An MLO's job is to help find you the right mortgage product based on your unique financial profile. They may also help determine if you qualify for any home loan grants or can benefit from any low-down payment products or specialized programs to help make home buying more attainable. 

Your MLO may also walk you through every step of the mortgage process. 

Frequently Asked Questions

Is There a Specific Month That’s Best for Buying a House?

No single month stands out nationwide as the best time to buy a home. Seasonal fluctuations vary locally, and the “best” month to buy also depends on your goals as a homebuyer. 

If you’re looking for the widest selection, consider shopping in April, May, or June, when there are typically more listings available. If you’re looking for the lowest purchase price, consider shopping in January or February, when the price per square foot has been shown to dip.[5]

What Matters More When Buying a Home: Interest Rates or Home Prices?

Both interest rates and home prices matter when buying a home. 

Interest rates directly affect your monthly payment and the total cost of borrowing. However, you could potentially reduce the rate later through refinancing (if market rates decrease and you qualify for a lower rate). Home prices, on the other hand, determine how much you must borrow upfront and how much equity you start with. Unlike rates, the purchase price is permanent once you close.

How Does My Local Market Impact the Best Time to Buy?

Real estate conditions vary widely from one local market to another, so understanding your local market is more important than following national trends.

Pay attention to key local factors like:

  • Inventory levels. How many homes are available in your area? The greater the inventory, the more leverage buyers may have to negotiate favorable terms on the purchase.
  • Competition. How many buyers are shopping for a local home? If buyers exceed inventory, local sellers have more leverage.
  • Price trends. Are sales prices increasing or decreasing? This may help you time your purchase, but it’s important to remember that it’s only possible to recognize peaks and valleys in hindsight. You cannot know whether your market is topping or bottoming out in the moment. 
  • Days on market (DOM). How long does it take the average local home to sell? Buyers tend to have an advantage when DOMs are longer.

A local PNC MLO could play a valuable role in helping you better understand your local market.

The Time May Be Right For You

Are you curious whether now is the right time for you to buy? A PNC mortgage loan officer (MLO) can help you make sense of your options and take the next step with confidence. Connect with an MLO today by calling 1-855-744-2668.