Weekly Market Watch

Spirited Ceasefire

Last week, global stocks paused their three-week rally as investors sought direction from conflicting headlines about U.S.-Iran conflict negotiations. U.S. and emerging market growth stocks outperformed, supported by strong earnings results from artificial intelligence-related technology companies that lifted the S&P 500^® and Nasdaq indices to all-time highs. U.S. economic reports remained solid, with both retail sales and manufacturing data above expectations.

Oil prices increased in reaction to delayed negotiations and blockade developments, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil ending the week at approximately $95 per barrel. Bonds posted modest declines as yields climbed and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended near 4.30%.

Market Outlook

Strong early earnings results and resilient economic data reinforce our focus on fundamentals and a modest tilt toward equity risk, although direction may be influenced by geopolitical events. Earnings season ramps up this week; 180 companies will report, including many of the Magnificent 7. The Federal Reserve (Fed) also meets this week, but no interest rate changes are expected. April’s meeting could mark Jerome Powell’s last as Fed chair, with Kevin Warsh’s potential confirmation providing further clarity for investors.

Table of the Week

First-quarter earnings season continues, with 28% of S&P 500 constituents having reported as of last week. The blended growth rate increased by 200 basis points week over week.

Growth was supported across most sectors, with key contributions from Industrials and Materials. Industrials have benefited from defense-related demand.

Earnings-per-share estimates for the second quarter have risen, marking one of the strongest early earnings season revision trends in the past five years.

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