It all started 39 years ago as a way to engage clients of PNC’s predecessor, Provident National Bank in Philadelphia, during the traditionally light holiday weeks. What hatched as the creative brainchild of the bank’s then-chief economist has since grown into one of PNC’s most popular and anticipated economic reports.

TRENDS: HOW THE INDEX HAS CHANGED SINCE 1984
Over the years, trends have emerged, and the PNC Christmas Price Index® (PNC CPI) has often increased or decreased at a rate consistent with the U.S. Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation produced by the U.S. Department of Labor. Four factors have largely driven changes in the index over the past 39 years^[1]:

• The Internet makes it easier to find the gifts from the song online, but these goods and services tend to be expensive, mainly due to added shipping and handling costs.
• The price of services overall has increased, while the price of goods has slowed.
• Fuel costs have a major effect on the cost of shipping. And, as we know, fuel prices have been especially volatile over the last few years.
• The year 2020 was especially challenging due to the pandemic and with the suspension of most live performances, we eliminated them from the index as they were not an option for the True Love, but they returned in 2021.

What’s the difference between the Total Cost of Christmas and the True Cost of Christmas? Who figures out the prices for the PNC Christmas Price Index? The answers to all these questions and more can be found here.

What is the Christmas Price Index^®, anyway?
The PNC Christmas Price Index (PNC CPI) shows the current cost for one set of each of the gifts given in the song, “The Twelve Days of Christmas."

What is the "True Cost of Christmas?"
The True Cost of Christmas is the cumulative cost of all the gifts when you count each repetition in the song, reflecting the cost of 364 gifts. This cost has measured even wider fluctuations over the years.

Why did PNC start tabulating the Christmas Price Index^®?
It all started 39 years ago as a way to engage clients of PNC’s predecessor, Provident National Bank in Philadelphia, during the traditionally light holiday weeks. What hatched as the creative brainchild of the bank’s then-chief economist has since grown into one of PNC’s most popular and anticipated economic reports.

Who is the holiday shopper at PNC?
Since 1986, Rebekah McCahan of PNC Asset Management Group has handled our shopping duties, putting a price tag on French hens, maids-a-milking, gold rings and all the other items in the PNC CPI. She has evaluated some distinctive economic trends along the way.

Where does McCahan do her shopping?
The partridge and dove prices came from a national bird supplier. Hatcheries provided the cost of the hens and swans. The price of the geese came from a waterfowl farm. A national pet chain provided the price of the calling birds, or canaries. The pear tree price came from a Pennsylvania nursery. A national jewelry chain provided the cost of five 14-carat gold rings, and PHILADANCO, a modern dance company in Philadelphia, offered the price of ladies dancing, while Philadelphia Ballet supplied the cost of the Lords-a-Leaping. Maids-a-milking are the only unskilled laborers in the PNC CPI and, as such, they reflect the federal minimum wage. Year after year, the sources for the prices remain the same for the most part for consistency, but they have changed on occasion due to changes in the market or business landscape.

What has changed since 1984?
Many things. First, the Internet. Today, it’s easier for us to find the goods and services listed in the song online. This convenience comes at a price, however: goods and services from the survey that are purchased online tend to be more expensive than those purchased in a more traditional transaction, mainly due to added shipping and handling costs of the specialty items. In 2015, we adjusted the current prices of the turtle doves and swans to better reflect open market pricing, and revised the historical data to correlate. Second, over the last 39 years, the price of services in general has increased, while the price of goods has slowed. In the 1984 PNC CPI, goods were by far the more expensive component of the Index — today it’s services. Since 1984, the PNC CPI has increased 127%. Also related to services, in 2007, federal laws increased the minimum wage and gave the maids-a-milking their first raise since 1997. The wage increased again in both 2008 and 2009, and is now holding steady at $7.25 per hour. Third, fuel costs. As fuel prices go up and down, they have a major effect on the cost of shipping.

In which year could a shopper afford to be a scrooge?
The cheapest PNC Christmas Price Index® in dollars occurred in 1995, when the cost of Christmas was just under $15,600[1].

In 2021, why did PNC compare data with 2019 and not 2020?
Comparing 2019 data was a better gauge of the impacts of inflation before the pandemic’s effects took hold of the global economy. We "normalized" the comparison by excluding a-once-in-a-century pandemic that had an outsized impact on 2020's data.

Why did the 2020 CPI change so drastically?
Taking into account the impact of social distancing, PNC calculated the 2020 price tag for the PNC CPI at just $16,168.10, a considerable decrease of $22,825.45 or -58.5% from the 2019 cost, with a third of the index constituents literally not available for purchase. The biggest impact was for live performances, which were mostly unavailable. While some performing arts groups found ways to engage, such as through virtual presentations, it was a silent night at most symphonies and the lights dimmed on many dance companies, as reflected in 2020’s significant drop in PNC’s CPI data.