PNC Economics Research

Who Wins When AI Models Open Up?

Open-weight models are rapidly closing the performance gap with frontier systems, shortening proprietary leadership spells and increasing the risk of model-layer commoditization.

August 7 2026 | Rayhan Momin

Jobs decline 23k, unemployment falls, in odd July jobs report

The U.S. economy shed 23k jobs in July versus an expectation of +85k in a very soft July jobs report.

August 7 2026 | Brian LeBlanc

Yen Intervention: Q&A

Treasury confirmed it stepped into the Yen market last Friday (July 31st), purchasing Yen for the first time since 1998.

August 6 2026 | Isfar Munir

Consumer Health Check

Using PNC’s proprietary data to illuminate trends and risks shaping U.S. consumer health.

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Data Releases

Initial Jobless Claims Remain Below 200k For the Third Straight Week

Initial jobless claims were basically unchanged in the week ending August 1 and remain low and steady.

August 6 2026 | Jay Hawkins

Modest Growth in Q2 Unit Labor Costs Is Good News on Inflation

Productivity growth was a solid 1.4% in the second quarter, with unit labor costs up a modest 1.3%.

August 6 2026 | Gus Faucher

Services PMI Points to Broad Economic Stability with Little Change in July 2026

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers
Index (PMI) was little changed in July 2026.

August 5 2026 | Kurt Rankin

Trade Deficit Narrows in June as Goods Deficit Shrinks and Services Surplus Expands

The nominal U.S. goods and services trade deficit narrowed 5.6% in June from May to $73.3 billion. 

August 4 2026 | Ershang Liang

Residential Remains a Drag to Total Construction Spending in June

Total construction spending fell 0.1% in June. Spending has been down in four of the first six months in 2026.

August 3 2026 | Ershang Liang

ISM Manufacturing Results Bring Job Prospects to the Forefront

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) exceeded expectations in July 2026, rising to 55.6 amid broad-based improvement across categories.

August 3 2026 | Kurt Rankin

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